Preliminary Baker Award Standings: Westminster 1, St. Mark's 2

Preliminary standings for the National Debate Coaches Association David P. Baker Award for Season Long Excellence are available below the fold. Three caveats, however:

  1. I have calculated the results for only the subset of teams that I thought would be in contention for a spot in the top ten at this point in the season. It is inevitable that I will have missed a few teams; as the season progresses, I will continue to add teams to my spreadsheet and they will appear on the rankings. If you notice any egregious omissions, please let me know.

  2. I do not have access to all of the tournament results that are needed for accurate and complete rankings. Please see the note below for a specific list of tournaments that were included as well as a list of tournaments for which results are still needed.

  3. The formula for the Baker Award has changed slightly from last season. Instead of capping the entry number at 100 for the purposes of calculating a tournament’s value, entries are now capped at 80 teams. Tournaments with 80 or more teams from 16 or more states are now maximum-point qualifiers; winning one of these tournaments nets a team 368 Baker points. The maximum number of possible points, therefore, is 1,840 points—teams are allowed to count only their top five point totals.

Without further ado, here are the current (unofficial) standings:

  1. Westminster — Ellis Allen & Daniel Taylor, 1463.2
  2. St. Mark’s — Rishee Batra & Alex Miles, 1255.0
  3. Georgetown Day — Joe Krakoff & Ben Levy, 1249.7
  4. Georgetown Day — David Herman & Isaac Stanley-Becker, 1032.7
  5. Gulliver Prep — Greg Adler & Jorge Toledo, 1030.3
  6. Beacon — Damiyr Davis & Miguel Feliciano, 934.0
  7. College Prep — Vinay Pai & Tatsuro Yamamura, 883.4
  8. Glenbrook North — Alex Pappas & Zack Parker, 878.3
  9. Damien — Nadeem Farooqi & Pablo Gannon, 870.1
  10. Carrollton Sacred Heart — Anna Dimitrijevic & Fabiola Urdaneta, 845.6

Tournaments that were included in these rankings: Blake (MN), Glenbrooks (IL), Greenhill School (TX), Montgomery Bell Academy (TN), St. Mark’s School (TX), University of Michigan (MI), Grapevine (TX), New Trier (IL), Ohio Valley (KY), University of Southern California (CA), University of Texas at Austin (TX), Wake Forest University (NC), Alta (UT), Bronx Science (NY), Dowling (IA), Meadows (NV), Valley (IA).

Quarterfinals and Semifinals bid tournaments that were not included due to a lack of available results: Georgetown Day (DC), Houston-Memorial (TX), Iowa Caucus (IA). The final round of Blake has not yet been held, so both Lexington CS and Beacon DF received a 1.8 elimination round success multiplier; the winner will have that number boosted to 2.3 after the round is decided.

25 thoughts on “Preliminary Baker Award Standings: Westminster 1, St. Mark's 2

    1. Bill Batterman Post author

      I'll post the spreadsheet after I've had a chance to enter a few more teams – I don't want anyone to be offended that they weren't included.

    1. Bill Batterman Post author

      I thought that Westminster had won: my mistake. I changed the elimination success multiplier to 1.8 pending the completion of the round and Westminster's total is now 1463.2 — still good enough for first place, but not by quite as much.

  1. T Rex

    When are you going to tell me what next years topic is? I heard it was decided, but I get all my news and info here.

    1. Tucker Boyce

      Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its exploration and/or development of space beyond the Earth’s mesosphere.

  2. jabarri

    how are GDS's only two teams number 3 and 4?? boss.. And how come they haven't been written about at all? What do they read?

    1. explanation

      because being 3-4 is largely a result of the way baker is calculated. Using only state diversity and tournament size it is difficult to differentiate tournaments like Ohio Valley, New Trier, and Wake Forrest from tournaments like the Glenbrooks or Greenhill.

      In particular Wake Forrest and St Marks historically have very similar state and size profiles (not positive about this year, though St Marks was definitely not a max point tournament and wake forest might have been)

      A look at average elim depth, (probably a more accurate, though still flawed method of determining season-quality) at octos has GDS HS hovering around 15-16th, and GDS KL around 28th. Incidentally elim depth also has St Marks BM ahead of Westminster AT, which ties into the below:

      A similar phenomena is behind why Westminster AT leads St Marks BM by 200 points despite their season records being pretty similar, St Marks's MBA performance isn't worth much at all because of the small size of the tourney, while Westminster's Ohio Valley win is worth max or close-to-max points, despite it being a far easier tournament than MBA.

      1. Anonymous

        if they either of them win lexington they'll probably pass st. mark's and maybe even westminster…lex is a full point tournament too, even though greenhill, st. mark's, and MBA aren't.

        1. explanation

          Well assuming Last years attendance numbers (an unjustified assumption since they'll almost certainly be different) Lex didn't have enough states to be a max point tournament. It didn't have enough teams either, though the reduction of the max team-multiplier from 100 to 80 changes that.

          Either way, if GDS BH won lexington it would be iffy if they passed St Marks, and certainly wouldn't pass westminster. If GDS KL won,, they might pass westminster depending on what GDS KL's current worst tournament is. Its unlikely though.

          Also, unless I did my math wrong Greenhill was a max point tournament this year, though not last year.

          I think the main thing to draw from this discussion is that the baker award needs to be seriously reformed. I understand from last years thread that the NDCA wants to keep it completely mathematical as well as keep it theoretically possibly for a regional team to place well.

          Is there any real argument against taking head to head into account in some fashion? Maybe use raw baker points to determine a top 16 (or w/e number suits you), then use head to head matchups to modify that ranking somehow? Maybe rank teams first 1-16 by raw baker points, then find out their win percentage against the rest of the top 16, then multiply their raw points by that percentage? I have no particular attachment to that mathematical method and more or less just came up with it on the spot, but some method to take into account head to head should be added.

          This probably hurts regional teams a bit since they get few debates against the other top teams, but i don't really see why this matters. Regional teams can't win the baker right now anyway. Its difficult for them to even get in the top 10. Look at the rankings the last few years, every team in the top 10 travels the national circuit.

          Nothing against GDS, who are obviously good and have been having an excellent year, but it is more than slightly ridiculous that the 28th team (they've had 1 quarters appearance and 2 doubles) in elim depth at octos bid tournaments is 3rd in the baker. What that statistic means is that there are 27 teams who on average get farther in the hardest tournaments than GDS KL, yet 25 of them are ranked lower in the baker race.

          1. Anonymous

            briefly scanning the pairings on planetdebate — lexington has more than 80 teams from exactly 12 states, so just short of max points. But, if GDS KL wins, or if they're undefeated and lose in semis, they'll still almost definitely pass Westminster because it'd replace their low tournament which is probably the glenbrooks or michigan

          2. explanation

            Assuming it is 80 teams and 12 states (not for sure because tournaments never get full attendance) then winning it with no prelim losses will not allow GDS KL to pass westminster.

            A perfect lexington with the above statistics would give GDS KL 294 points. This would replace their glenbrook performance, which was worth 100.5 points, for a net gain of 193.5. Westminster leads GDS by 214. Close, but no cigar.

  3. Bill Batterman Post author

    I'm still missing the results from the GDS tournament — if someone out there has the packet + elim results, please email it to me.

    1. Brody

      This is from 2nd hand information from folks at the tournament that I'm trying to piece together from memory. But at least if I post it on here someone can either correct me or hold the peace.

      Carrolton DU over New Trier KC
      GBN HS Over Beacon DF
      Centennial ML Over Elenore Roosevelt AC
      Lexington CS Over Cathedrial Prep HW
      Gulliver Prep AZ Over GBN ML
      Baltimore City College MN Over Brother Rice HC
      Lexington CF Over Carrolton CV
      GBN BH Over GBN SS

      Carrolton d Lexington CF
      GBN BH Over GBN HS
      Centennial LM d Baltimore City MN
      Lexington CS d Gulliver Prep AZ

      Carrolton DU d Lexington CS
      GBN BH d Centennial LM

      Carrolton DU d GBN BH

  4. explanation 2

    elim depth at octas tournies. math done by a very, very wise man

    St. Marks BM
    Westminster AT
    Gulliver Prep AT
    Damien FG
    Glenbrook North PP
    Carrollton DU
    Lexington CS
    Beacon DF
    College Prep PY
    Pembroke Hill HV
    Kinkaid BB
    Oak Park HH
    Greenhill PP
    Dallas Jesuit GoMc
    Georgetown Day HS
    Greenhill BS

    1. Bill Batterman Post author

      That site is awesome. Does anyone know who runs it? I'll contact them and see if they would be willing to do a policy ranking.

  5. Pingback: Baker Award Standings Updated | The 3NR

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